Regional Market Statistics

One of the topics I spend more time talking about to media, clients and colleagues is the Average Sale Price trend of properties in our region. (Collingwood, Wasaga Beach, Blue Mountains and Clearview)While I understand the relevance and curiosity in obtaining these statistics, I am often disturbed as to how they are interpreted and used. The accompanying graph illustrates the change in the average price of residential units sold on the Georgian Triangle Real Estate Board since 2004. However, it does not necessarily mean that your property (if you have made no changes to it)is worth 3% less than last year or 20% more than in 2004.

What needs to be looked at is the composition of the sold inventory. One of the greatest influences of the average price statistics are the homes that are currently being sold that did not exist 10 years ago. Many of these new subdivisions, especially at the bottom of the Niagara Escarpment, have homes/chalets that start at $1,000,000.

However, there has been a definite increase in property values as illustrated in this graph. Here, we show the number of properties sold in different price catagories. The bars on the far left show the number of homes sold in the $100K to $199K range in each year from 2004 to 2008. You can see a distinct decline each year. In contrast, the next catagory from $200K to $349K shows a steep rise. These homes are most likely not new homes but the supply and demand of affordable homes in the area have pushed the prices of these units to new levels.

In contrast, I have personally sold a well kept home on an attractive street close to Blue Mountain Resort for the same price over a period of little over 2 years. Neither buyer or seller was under any pressure and there was no alterations done to the building. I believe this to be a true indicator of our market. Generally speaking, I believe that we peaked in terms of average price increases in July of 2004 and have more or less flatlined since then. (this may not apply to homes under $300K in the town of Collingwood) I conclude, therefore, that a certain caveat should be excercised when quoting or making use of "average" price increases or decreases.