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Wednesday, March 11, 2009
Sunday, March 8, 2009
The future of suburbs
It was with great interest that I read a recent article in the Toronto Star about a keynote address that stunned builders. American auther, public speaker and social critic James Howard Kunstler, outlined his vision for the not-so-distant future last weekend at the Canadian Home Builders' Association annual conference.
In it, he said; "The future will include a return to locally grown food, a resurgence of small cities and towns and an end to the days of "Happy Motoring" and the car-dependent society as world oil production declines."
I have believed this to be true for a long time and, in fact, back in 1990, my wife and I decided to "walk our talk". It was a difficult decision, at first, to move from the pristine new subdivision in Unionville with large homes, manicured lawns with pools in the backyard and friendly neighbours always ready to share a cocktail and some idle chatter. However, after numerous glasses of wine one evening, we tossed a coin and in a few weeks were making plans to move permanently to our cabin in Collingwood. It was all about moving to a place we cared about and enjoying a lifestyle that was not surrounded by suburbs, strip malls and mega parking lots populated with big box stores.
During the years that we have lived here, we have seen with increased evidence, what Mr Kunstler is talking about. I look at the popularity and success of such enterprises as our "100 Mile Market" which only sells meat and produce that can be obtained within a 100 miles of the store. I look at a butcher in Collingwood known as Blue Ridge Meats which is located directly across from Loblaws that is thriving. I see people picking up their canned or packaged goods from the large commercial outlet and walking across the street to get their locally grown, often organic meat even though it may cost a few percent more. I look at how the community gets involved with local politics, arts and education and health care. Another wonderful example of how people care about their community was recently evident in Haliburton. John Tory, the leader of the Conservative Party and in my opinion, one of the "nice guys" in politics, tried to get a seat in parliament by running in the safe conservative community of Halibuton. This was perceived to be such a shoe-in that the Liberals did not even bother to spend any time or resources in the area. The local Liberal candidate was a fellow by the name of Rick Johnson. I happen to know Rick. He and his talented and beautiful wife, Terri Crawford, are accomplished musicians and Toni Award nominees. They played at my son's wedding and have provided the live entertainment at our friend's private Elvis Weekend party for the past 10 years or so. Rick has been heavily involved in local politics and more specifically, as a trustee on the Board of Education. He and and his wife have also published numerous childrens' songs and educational materials. In summary, Rick and Terri were and are still, well loved and respected local members of the community and even if it meant voting against local political beliefs or terminating the carreer of a talented political leader such as John Tory, the voters' love and care for community came first. I don't believe this scenario could be replayed in a large, sprawling suburban community.
I hope Mr. Kunstler is right and the large, mass production builders are listening. The importance of small communities or as the province likes to call them, "settlement areas" is critical in terms of the sustainability of a healthy lifestyle for future generations and the weaning off of oil dependency.
In it, he said; "The future will include a return to locally grown food, a resurgence of small cities and towns and an end to the days of "Happy Motoring" and the car-dependent society as world oil production declines."
I have believed this to be true for a long time and, in fact, back in 1990, my wife and I decided to "walk our talk". It was a difficult decision, at first, to move from the pristine new subdivision in Unionville with large homes, manicured lawns with pools in the backyard and friendly neighbours always ready to share a cocktail and some idle chatter. However, after numerous glasses of wine one evening, we tossed a coin and in a few weeks were making plans to move permanently to our cabin in Collingwood. It was all about moving to a place we cared about and enjoying a lifestyle that was not surrounded by suburbs, strip malls and mega parking lots populated with big box stores.
During the years that we have lived here, we have seen with increased evidence, what Mr Kunstler is talking about. I look at the popularity and success of such enterprises as our "100 Mile Market" which only sells meat and produce that can be obtained within a 100 miles of the store. I look at a butcher in Collingwood known as Blue Ridge Meats which is located directly across from Loblaws that is thriving. I see people picking up their canned or packaged goods from the large commercial outlet and walking across the street to get their locally grown, often organic meat even though it may cost a few percent more. I look at how the community gets involved with local politics, arts and education and health care. Another wonderful example of how people care about their community was recently evident in Haliburton. John Tory, the leader of the Conservative Party and in my opinion, one of the "nice guys" in politics, tried to get a seat in parliament by running in the safe conservative community of Halibuton. This was perceived to be such a shoe-in that the Liberals did not even bother to spend any time or resources in the area. The local Liberal candidate was a fellow by the name of Rick Johnson. I happen to know Rick. He and his talented and beautiful wife, Terri Crawford, are accomplished musicians and Toni Award nominees. They played at my son's wedding and have provided the live entertainment at our friend's private Elvis Weekend party for the past 10 years or so. Rick has been heavily involved in local politics and more specifically, as a trustee on the Board of Education. He and and his wife have also published numerous childrens' songs and educational materials. In summary, Rick and Terri were and are still, well loved and respected local members of the community and even if it meant voting against local political beliefs or terminating the carreer of a talented political leader such as John Tory, the voters' love and care for community came first. I don't believe this scenario could be replayed in a large, sprawling suburban community.
I hope Mr. Kunstler is right and the large, mass production builders are listening. The importance of small communities or as the province likes to call them, "settlement areas" is critical in terms of the sustainability of a healthy lifestyle for future generations and the weaning off of oil dependency.
Wednesday, January 7, 2009
Regional Market Statistics
One of the topics I spend more time talking about to media, clients and colleagues is the Average Sale Price trend of properties in our region. (Collingwood, Wasaga Beach, Blue Mountains and Clearview)While I understand the relevance and curiosity in obtaining these statistics, I am often disturbed as to how they are interpreted and used. The accompanying graph illustrates the change in the average price of residential units sold on the Georgian Triangle Real Estate Board since 2004. However, it does not necessarily mean that your property (if you have made no changes to it)is worth 3% less than last year or 20% more than in 2004.
What needs to be looked at is the composition of the sold inventory. One of the greatest influences of the average price statistics are the homes that are currently being sold that did not exist 10 years ago. Many of these new subdivisions, especially at
the bottom of the Niagara Escarpment, have homes/chalets that start at $1,000,000.However, there has been a definite increase in property values as illustrated in this graph. Here, we show the number of properties sold in different price catagories. The bars on the far left show the number of homes sold in the $100K to $199K range in each year from 2004 to 2008. You can see a distinct decline each year. In contrast, the next catagory from $200K to $349K shows a steep rise. These homes are most likely not new homes but the supply and demand of affordable homes in the area have pushed the prices of these units to new levels.
In contrast, I have personally sold a well kept home on an attractive street close to Blue Mountain Resort for the same price over a period of little over 2 years. Neither buyer or seller was under any pressure and there was no alterations done to the building. I believe this to be a true indicator of our market. Generally speaking, I believe that we peaked in terms of average price increases in July of 2004 and have more or less flatlined since then. (this may not apply to homes under $300K in the town of Collingwood) I conclude, therefore, that a certain caveat should be excercised when quoting or making use of "average" price increases or decreases.
Monday, December 22, 2008
Monday, December 1, 2008
Georgian Triangle Absorption Rates
There are many ways to analyse the current real estate market. One of the ones I find most useful is the absorption rate. This is basically the mathamatical relationship between supply and demand and indicates the number of month's supply of a certain product in a certain area. For the purposes of determining the balance of supply and demand with respect to a buyers or sellers market, here are our recognized parameters:
Normal or balanced market: 5-6
Sellers market: 0-5
Buyers market: 7 +
The following absorption rates are calculated on a year to date basis to the end of November, 2008 for single family residential units only.
Normal or balanced market: 5-6
Sellers market: 0-5
Buyers market: 7 +
The following absorption rates are calculated on a year to date basis to the end of November, 2008 for single family residential units only.
Clearview Township=10.5
Town of Collingwood=6.9
Town of Blue Mountains=15.3
Wasaga Beach=6.5
As can be seen by these numbers, we are generally in a Buyers market. In the case of the Town of Blue Mountains, with over 15 months supply of single family residential homes, pricing becomes critical.
Thursday, November 27, 2008
The Quarterlife Crisis
In my business, which is the delivery of real estate services and information, we are constantly challenged by our ever evolving society and its changing needs. In order to survivie in this industry, we must be keenly aware of these changing needs and address them accordingly.
Recently, the bright, young minds of Abby Wilner and David Singleton described our next generation of leaders and consumers (aged 21 to 32) in a report titled, The Quarterlife Crisis: The Net Gen Transition to Adulthood. Now, whether you are in the business of selling services or products to this group or you are a parent with children in or around this age, you should find this information interesting.
The quarterlife crisis experienced by many in this group is described as a state of panic and uncertainty that often accompanies the transition to adulthood. This panic has been brought on primarily by the increasing costs of education and housing which delay financial independence, and that delay, coupled with a later average marriage age, essentially prolongs the transition period into adulthood. They are, therefore, largely dependent on their parents for financial assistance and housing during this entrance into the "real world". It was also interesting to note that the Net Geners might be Internet savvy, but they are at a loss when it comes to communicating in corporate settings; they find rich virtual communities on sites such as MySpace or Facebook, but often lack neighbours or colleagues to lean on in times of crisis.
As someone who is at the leading edge of the Babyboomers, I fully understand the concept of the "mid-life crisis". Interestingly, the "quarterlife crisis" describes a phenomenon that is in some ways the opposite of the midlife crisis. At the midlife, life has become stagnant and people want change and excitement; at the quarterlife, young adults experience constant change and want to settle down.
From a real estate perspective, we must, therefore create affordable, community-oriented housing and find ways that the QLC's can discover them through intuitive Web Search that have attributes that appeal to them. ( if you want the full report, email me: allreal@bmts.com)
Recently, the bright, young minds of Abby Wilner and David Singleton described our next generation of leaders and consumers (aged 21 to 32) in a report titled, The Quarterlife Crisis: The Net Gen Transition to Adulthood. Now, whether you are in the business of selling services or products to this group or you are a parent with children in or around this age, you should find this information interesting.
The quarterlife crisis experienced by many in this group is described as a state of panic and uncertainty that often accompanies the transition to adulthood. This panic has been brought on primarily by the increasing costs of education and housing which delay financial independence, and that delay, coupled with a later average marriage age, essentially prolongs the transition period into adulthood. They are, therefore, largely dependent on their parents for financial assistance and housing during this entrance into the "real world". It was also interesting to note that the Net Geners might be Internet savvy, but they are at a loss when it comes to communicating in corporate settings; they find rich virtual communities on sites such as MySpace or Facebook, but often lack neighbours or colleagues to lean on in times of crisis.
As someone who is at the leading edge of the Babyboomers, I fully understand the concept of the "mid-life crisis". Interestingly, the "quarterlife crisis" describes a phenomenon that is in some ways the opposite of the midlife crisis. At the midlife, life has become stagnant and people want change and excitement; at the quarterlife, young adults experience constant change and want to settle down.
From a real estate perspective, we must, therefore create affordable, community-oriented housing and find ways that the QLC's can discover them through intuitive Web Search that have attributes that appeal to them. ( if you want the full report, email me: allreal@bmts.com)
Wednesday, November 26, 2008
What goes up......
Recently, I received by tax bill in the mail. In our province (Ontario), the amount of residential taxes charged by the municipality is predicated by the mil rate which is a multiple of the fair market value of your home. Being in real estate for approximately 30 years and the owner of an office with 25 knowledgeable professionals, I do know, or at least have access to, a lot of information about the value of homes and properties in our area. As a result, I thought there was a significant difference from what MPAC thought my property was worth and what I thought I could get for it in today's market. Armed with compelling evidence, I challenged their assessment and ended up in a discussion with one of their senior people. Basically, I was told that their appraisal model had a 5.6% increase built into it based on national and provincial figures established about 2 years ago and I had nothing to worry about if my increase was below that average (it was not). I pointed out that unless they never opened a newspaper, television or computer, real estate values have decreased...globally. I was told, essentially, that their model was not built for decreasing values!
Perhaps this thinking and this model have been the root cause of our current economic malaise. The sub-prime mess south of the border, Wall street, GM, Ford and Chrysler have all built their models on the premise that what goes up will continue to go up. Maybe we have to pay more to find CEO's that understand that what goes up.....must come down!
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